tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8484636121528981760.post5196999321668081267..comments2022-12-17T17:14:29.447+11:00Comments on Some Air: No fact-checking when it's most neededKetanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14304050938020117205noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8484636121528981760.post-36701032089122190712013-03-25T11:29:34.117+11:002013-03-25T11:29:34.117+11:00Hi anon,
Thanks for the comment. You raise some ...Hi anon, <br /><br />Thanks for the comment. You raise some good points, and I have a follow up post coming soon, so please watch out for that. <br /><br />In the interim, I might address your points:<br /><br />- Totally agree that Electranet are interested in 'firm' (rather than average) reliability - this is a massively important consideration. There still needs to be careful elaboration and accuracy when using the term 'availability', ie, we need to ensure that the word 'firm' is right there along with it. If it isn't, there's the potential for misunderstanding and misinterpretation. <br /><br />- AEMO's calculations actually involve a high-demand percentile (rather than temps, like I've done here) - which means their data are an interesting picture of how wind energy performs, versus the fluctuations in demand in the market - see my new post (when it gets posted). <br /><br />Thanks again for the thoughtful comments. <br /><br />Ketan Ketanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14304050938020117205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8484636121528981760.post-31143320764199436112013-03-20T10:48:19.268+11:002013-03-20T10:48:19.268+11:00Ketan, your analysis is sound, but you are looking...Ketan, your analysis is sound, but you are looking at daily average wind contribution on a hot day.<br /><br />Electranet, SAPN and AEMO in their planning/forecasting roles only care about the peak few half-hourly periods per year (as this is what drives the need for investment in generators and transmission infrastructure). <br /><br />Possibly look at the contribution of wind when SA's demand is over 3,000MW, and the it's a hot day (it's rare demand that high isn't on a hot day in SA).<br /><br />Lastly, I think you'll find that ElectraNet, SAPN and AEMO refer to the 8% of wind available as "firm capacity", i.e. capacity that can be relied upon for planning purposes. <br /><br />Happy to talk with you further, but don't want to put my name on a website (as I may or may not work for one of these organisations).<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com